Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence
构建动态模型研究贸易政策不确定性如何抑制企业出口投资，并以葡萄牙加入欧共体为例，发现该不确定性消除对出口企业进入和销售额增长贡献显著。
In a dynamic model with sunk export costs, a firm's export investment is lower under trade policy uncertainty, and credible preferential trade agreements (PTAs) increase trade even if current tariffs are low. Exploring Portugal's accession to the European Community as a policy uncertainty shock we find that the trade reform accounted for a large fraction of Portuguese exporting firms' entry and sales; the accession removed uncertainty about future EC trade policies; and this uncertainty channel accounted for a large fraction of the predicted growth. Our approach can be applied to other PTAs and sources of policy uncertainty.