折现与增长

Discounting and Growth

American Economic Review · 2014
被引 31
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究了在经济增长不确定时,如何确定长期投资的折现率,发现增长冲击的持续性要求对更远的时间使用更低的折现率,而气候损害与消费正相关时需增加风险溢价。

Abstract

In a growing economy, the discount rate to evaluate a long-term investment is the minimum rate of expected return that compensates for the increased intergenerational inequalities. Because the growth rate is uncertain, there is a precautionary argument in favor of lowering the discount rate. If shocks to growth are persistent, this is a robust argument for using a smaller discount rate for more distant time horizons. If climate damages are positively correlated with future consumption, a risk premium should be added to the climate discount rate, which could have an increasing term structure.

贴现率代际不平等预防性储蓄气候贴现率