Educational Attainment and the Changing U.S. Wage Structure: Dynamic Implications on Young Individuals’ Choices
构建了一个动态模型研究个人教育投资决策，提出仅依赖决策时可获得信息的预测方法，并利用1964-2004年CPS数据比较了不同预测模型的表现。
We present a dynamic model of individuals' educational investments that allows us to explore alternative modeling strategies for forecasting future wage distributions. The key innovation we propose is an approach to forecasting that relies only on the information that would be available at the actual time decisions are made and which incorporates the role of parameter uncertainty into the decision-making process. We compare the performance of our method with alternative models of forecasting behavior, based on CPS data over the period 1964-2004. (c) 2010 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.