Domestic Exchange Rates and Regional Economic Growth in the United States, 1899–1908: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis
研究了美联储成立前美国银行汇票市场（国内汇率）的作用，发现区域增长差异导致汇率可预测变动，且该市场提升了支付系统效率，支持了私人部门可能自行发展出统一全国系统的观点。
This article examines one feature of the pre—Federal Reserve financial system that has not been widely researched: the market for bank drafts (the “domestic exchanges”). Though the exchanges existed for nearly a century, critics argued that exchange rate fluctuations exacerbated financial panics. We find, using cointegration analysis over the period from 1899 to 1908, that differences in growth rates across regions caused predictable movements in rates. We conclude that the exchanges promoted efficiency in the payments system. This supports the view that the private sector might have developed a unified national system had the Fed not abolished the exchanges.