Investment and Demand Uncertainty
利用意大利制造业企业的主观需求概率分布数据，研究不确定性对投资决策的影响，发现不确定性会削弱投资对需求的反应，减缓资本积累，且对不可逆投资和高市场势力企业影响更大。
This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on the investment decisions of a sample of Italian manufacturing firms, using information on the subjective probability distribution of future demand for firms' products according to the entrepreneurs. The results support the view that uncertainty weakens the response of investment to demand thus slowing down capital accumulation. Consistent with the predictions of the theory, there is considerable heterogeneity in the effect of uncertainty on investment: it is stronger for firms that cannot easily reverse investment decisions and for those with substantial market power. We show that the negative effect of uncertainty on investment cannot be explained by uncertainty proxying for liquidity constraints.