Dynamic Marketing and Retention Decisions for Cow‐Calf Producers
用期望效用最大化的离散随机规划模型，分析肉牛养殖户在断奶和周岁阶段的犊牛保留决策，以及现金、套期保值、期权等营销选择，发现保留决策取决于当前利润、预期利润分布、定价方案和风险厌恶程度。
Abstract Optimal calf retention and marketing activities for cow‐calf producers are examined using a expected utility‐maximizing discrete stochastic programming model. Steer, heifer, and corn prices are modeled as stochastic variables. The mathematical model is used to consider retention at weaning and yearling stages and marketing alternatives of cash, hedging, and options. Results show how calf retention decisions depend upon current profit, expected future profit distributions, pricing alternatives available, and the cow‐calf producer's aversion to risk.