Subsidies and Crowding Out: A Double‐Hurdle Model of Fertilizer Demand in Malawi
利用马拉维面板数据和双重门槛模型，研究发现每1公斤补贴化肥平均挤出0.22公斤商业化肥，且挤出效应在较贫困农民中较小，表明将补贴瞄准农村贫困人口能最大化总化肥使用量。
This article uses a double‐hurdle model with panel data from Malawi to investigate how fertilizer subsidies affect farmer demand for commercial fertilizer. The article controls for potential endogeneity caused by the nonrandom targeting of fertilizer subsidy recipients. Results show that on average 1 additional kilogram of subsidized fertilizer crowds out 0.22 kg of commercial fertilizer, but crowding out ranges from 0.18 among the poorest farmers to 0.30 among relatively nonpoor farmers. This indicates that targeting fertilizer subsidies to the rural poor is likely to maximize the contribution of the subsidy program to total fertilizer use.