Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Agricultural Trade Creation and Trade Diversion
评估了主要自由贸易协定对农业贸易的创造和转移效应，发现东盟-中国、欧盟等协定显著增加了成员间的农业贸易，且使用PPML估计方法优于传统OLS。
This paper evaluates agricultural trade creation and diversion effects of the most important free trade agreements (FTAs). Trade creation and diversion effects are estimated using a Poisson Pseudo‐Maximum‐Likelihood (PPML) estimator with various fixed effects to deal with heteroskedasticity and zero trade observations. The analysis finds that PPML estimation is preferred to OLS and the estimated impacts of FTAs are different if zero trade observations are considered. The ASEAN‐China preferential trade agreement, EU‐15, EU‐25, and Southern African Development Community agreements have generated large increases in agricultural trade among their members.