Note on Adjustments to Analysts' Earnings Forecasts Based Upon Systematic Cross-Sectional Components of Prior-Period Errors
评估了利用前期截面预测误差的系统性成分来调整当前分析师盈利预测的有效性，发现该方法能显著消除系统性误差，并可通过加入前期超额收益进一步提高预测准确性。
This study assesses the effectiveness of using systematic components of cross-sectional forecast errors from prior years in order to adjust current analysts' earnings forecasts. The empirical results document that a significant component of the cross-sectional MSE in analysts' forecasts is systematic, and that parameter estimates from earlier periods enable the elimination of a substantial portion of the systematic errors in current forecasts. Further improvements in forecast accuracy are attained by the incorporation of prior-year excess security returns in order to reduce unsystematic error.