Local demand, investment multipliers, and industrialization: Theory and application to the Guatemalan highlands
研究需求在农村工业化中的作用，发现存在规模报酬递增时，对中间投入品的需求和非位似偏好可产生投资乘数和多重均衡。通过对危地马拉高地的实证分析，发现非农生产的范围和种类存在巨大差异，但模式不完全符合投资乘数，城市化有利于专业化企业出现，非农产品出口对工业化很重要。
This paper investigates the role of demand in rural industrialization. We show that, when increasing returns are present, investment multipliers and multiple equilibria can result from demand for intermediate inputs and non-homothetic preferences. We then examine smallscale industrialization in the Guatemalan highlands. We find large differences in the extent and variety of non-farm production across municipalities and evidence of large entry and transportation costs. But the pattern of non-farm production does not fully conform to investment multipliers. We conclude that urbanization favors the emergence of specialized firms and that the export of non-farm products is important for industrialization.