The Impact of the Boll Weevil, 1892–1932
利用新的县级面板数据，估计了棉铃象甲对美国南方经济影响的时序路径，发现农民在害虫到来前增产，到来后棉花产量和土地价值大幅下降，农民转向其他作物。
The boll weevil is America's most celebrated agricultural pest. We analyze new county-level panel data to provide sharp estimates of the time path of the insect's effects on the southern economy. We find that in anticipation of the contact, farmers increased production, attempting to squeeze out one last large crop. Upon arrival, the weevil had a large negative and lasting impact on cotton production, acreage, and especially yields. In response, rather than taking land out of agricultural production, farmers shifted to other crops. We also find striking effects on land values and population movements.