Note—A Re-Examination of the Results of Hogarth and Makridakis' “The Value of Decision Making in a Complex Environment: An Experimental Approach”
质疑Hogarth和Makridakis(1981)的两项结果，指出其缺乏统计支持且未考虑团队起始位置的影响。通过自举模拟和回归分析，证实了“一致策略优于随机策略”，但否定了“一致管理的任意团队表现与人类管理团队相当”的结论。
This note raises questions about two of the results of Hogarth and Makridakis (Hogarth, R. M., S. Makridakis. 1981. The value of decision making in a complex environment: An experimental approach. Management Sci. 27 93–107.) based on a lack of statistical support and inadequate consideration of the effect of team starting position on performance. Using bootstrapping simulation and regression analyses which specifically consider team starting position, we find (1) support for Hogarth and Makridakis' finding that a consistent strategy outperforms a random one, and (2) statistical disconfirmation for their second finding, that consistently managed arbitrary teams perform quite well in comparison with human management teams.