Unemployment at risk: the policy determinants of labour market exposure to economic shocks
研究了劳动力市场受经济冲击的脆弱性，发现失业保险慷慨度、积极劳动力市场政策和最低工资会影响平均失业与冲击暴露之间的权衡，而降低税负则能同时降低稳态失业和暴露度。
This paper examines the vulnerability of labour markets to adverse economic shocks. We define labour market exposure as the cumulated amount of excess unemployment generated by a shock before unemployment returns to steady-state. We use a panel of 19 countries covering the period 1985–2010 to assess the influence of labour market policies on labour market exposure, which is also calculated country by country. We find that less generous unemployment insurance, more active labour market policies or a lower minimum wage imply a trade-off between average unemployment and labour market exposure, as they help low-skilled workers to get out of unemployment at the cost of increased vulnerability to adverse shocks. On the other hand, reducing the tax wedge is conducive to both lower steady-state unemployment and labour market exposure.