Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade
利用1974-1995年十个发达国家的双边贸易数据，通过引力模型分析发现，实际汇率不确定性对农业贸易有显著的负面影响，且这种影响比其他行业更大。
Abstract Using a sample of bilateral trade flows across ten developed countries between 1974 and 1995, this article explores the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors. Based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results show that real exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant negative effect on agricultural trade over this period. Moreover, the negative impact of uncertainty on agricultural trade has been more significant compared to other sectors.