Supporting long‐term workforce planning with a dynamic aging chain model: A case study from the service industry
研究用系统动力学模型模拟服务企业员工的老化链，发现招聘、培训等环节的延迟导致劳动力过剩和短缺的周期性波动，为优化人力资源规划提供工具。
Abstract This study demonstrates how a dynamic, aging chain model can support strategic decisions in workforce planning. More specifically, we used a system dynamics model (a modeling and simulation technique originating from supply chain management) to improve the recruiting and training process in a large German service provider in the wider field of logistics. The key findings are that the aging chain of service operators within the company is affected by a variety of delays in, for example, recruiting, training, and promoting employees, and that the structure of the planning process generates cyclic phases of workforce surplus and shortage. The discussion is based on an in‐depth case study conducted in the service industry in 2008. Implications are that planning processes must be fine‐tuned to account for delays in the aging chain. The dynamic model provides a tool to gain insight into the problem and to improve the actual human resource planning process. The value of the paper lies in the idea of applying a well‐known and quantitative method from supply chain management to a human resource management issue. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.