Population-Employment Models: Stationarity, Cointegration, and Dynamic Adjustment
研究发现美国50州的人口和就业数据非平稳但存在协整关系，向量误差修正模型显示调整周期约30-35年，而传统非平稳模型得出1-2世纪的调整周期可能是虚假结果，为人口-就业关系建模提供了建议。
Abstract. Population and employment in the 50 United States are found to be non-stationary and cointegrated. Vector error correction (VEC) models exhibit dynamics with adjustment to shocks essentially completed in 30–35 years. This contrasts with adjustment periods between one and two centuries for non-stationary models specified in levels. These dynamic adjustment patterns support the hypothesis that relatively long adjustment periods and slow dynamics are probably the spurious results of using non-stationary levels of population and employment outside of a VEC model framework. Recommendations for modeling the population–employment relationship are offered based on the findings reported.