Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgage Termination, Option Values and Local Market Conditions: An Empirical Analysis
分析了1985-1992年间固定利率和浮动利率抵押贷款的提前还款或违约概率，发现房价增值和收入增长主要影响30年期固定利率贷款的提前还款，而利率变化主要影响15年期固定利率贷款，浮动利率贷款提前还款较少但违约更多。
This paper analyzes the probabilities of prepayment or default for Fixed Rate Mortgages (FRMs) and Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs). Using data from the period 1985–1992, the analysis indicates that the likelihood of prepayment of thirty year FRMs was determined primarily by house price appreciation and personal income growth and the likelihood of prepayment of fifteen year FRMs was determined primarily by interest rate changes. ARMs were prepaid less frequently than FRMs, were less likely to be prepaid when interest rates declined and defaulted more often than FRMs. The analysis provides evidence that ARM holders are less mobile than FRM holders.