Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?
发现，各国和各行业的季节波动幅度与经济周期波动幅度呈强正相关，并构建了一个企业内生选择技术灵活性的模型来解释这一现象。
We show that there is a strong, positive correlation across countries and industries between the standard deviation of the seasonal component and the standard deviation of the nonseasonal component of aggregate variables. After documenting this stylized fact, we discuss possible explanations and develop a model that generates our empirical finding. The main feature of the model is that firms endogenously choose their degree of technological flexibility as a function of the amounts of seasonal and nonseasonal variation in demand. Although this model is intended to be illustrative, we find evidence supporting one of its key empirical implications.