Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?
检验国际收入数据能否帮助无先验知识的研究者识别经济增长的决定因素,发现不同版本数据(如PWT 6.1与6.2)会导致关于政府、贸易、人口和地理作用的结论大相径庭,表明数据误差过大,无法支撑无先验的增长实证研究。
Many factors inhibiting and facilitating economic growth have been suggested. Can agnostics rely on international income data to tell them which matter? We find that agnostic priors lead to conclusions that are sensitive to differences across available income estimates. For example, the PWT 6.2 revision of the 1960–1996 income estimates in the PWT 6.1 leads to substantial changes regarding the role of government, international trade, demography, and geography. We conclude that margins of error in international income estimates appear too large for agnostic growth empirics.