Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition
基于德国扩展的世代交叠模型，量化了提高退休年龄、改善缴费与待遇关联等养老金改革方案对宏观经济、分配和效率的影响，发现改革不能仅从代际公平角度评价。
The aim of this paper is to quantify the welfare effects of some currently discussed pension reform proposals in Germany. The analysis is based on an extended overlapping‐generations model which accounts for intra‐generational heterogeneity, rising life expectancy and declining fertility. Given a baseline path of the economy under the existing unfunded pension system, the model calculates the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various pension reform measures aimed at reducing the level of the future unfunded pension system. Simulations reveal that pension reforms cannot be evaluated solely in terms of inter‐ and intra‐generational equity. Substantial efficiency gains or losses might arise if the linkage between contributions and benefits is improved or weakened.