Improving Real-Time Estimates of Output and Inflation Gaps With Multiple-Vintage Models
研究了利用多版本向量自回归模型预测数据修订值，从而改进产出缺口和通胀缺口的实时估计，对央行和宏观经济预测者有用。
Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation gaps differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data vintages provide forecasts of post-revision values of future observations and of already-released observations capable of improving estimates of output and inflation gaps in real time. Our findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages. This article has online supplementary materials.