On the Structure of Analyst Research Portfolios and Forecast Accuracy
研究分析师在国家和行业维度上的研究覆盖结构如何影响预测准确性，发现国家多元化能提升准确性，而行业多元化的效果取决于具体情境（国际或美国国内）。
ABSTRACT This study provides insights into the forces and constraints that shape analyst research coverage along country and sector dimensions and the impact of the structure of an analyst's portfolio on forecast accuracy. We find that analyst specialization by country and sector is sensitive to the extent to which firms within a country or sector and firms across country‐sectors are exposed to common economic forces, the potential for revenue generation, and broker culture. Our tests indicate that existing research on the relation between analyst portfolio structure and forecast accuracy may suffer from an endogeneity bias. We use our analysis of analyst specialization to develop controls for this bias. Once we employ these controls, we find that country diversification is associated with superior forecast accuracy. However, the relation between sector diversification and forecast accuracy is context‐specific. Specifically, sector diversification enhances forecast accuracy in an international context, while it detracts from forecast accuracy in a domestic U.S. context.