Seasonality in the U.S. motion picture industry
通过电影固定效应和长面板数据,分离了电影票房收入的季节性中需求与供给(影片数量和质量)的影响,发现潜在需求的季节性远小于观测到的销售季节性,且大片在需求高峰上映放大了这一效应。
The observed seasonality of box‐office revenues reflects both seasonality in underlying demand for movies and seasonality in the number and quality of available movies. I separately identify these aspects by estimating weekly demand for movies, using movie fixed effects, a long panel of movies' weekly revenues, and restrictions on their decay pattern. I find that the estimated seasonality in underlying demand is much smaller and slightly different from the observed seasonality of sales. The biggest movies are released at times when demand is highest, amplifying the underlying seasonality. Price rigidities in the industry may facilitate this amplification effect.