Cognitive biases and their impact on strategic planning
讨论了管理者和规划者在判断风险时常见的认知偏差，分析了这些偏差对战略规划的影响，并探讨了主观敏感性分析作为改善判断的潜在方法。
Abstract Subjective judgements by planners and managers are a major component in the process of strategic planning. If such judgements are faulty, efforts at better strategic plans are likely to be misdirected. This paper discusses those biases which appear common to both managers and planners when they make judgements about risk. Implications of biased judgement are discussed in a planning context. Although we still do not know the best ways to elicit judgements, the paper concludes with a discussion of subjective sensitivity analysis which appears to offer some hope.