Naive Reinforcement Learning With Endogenous Aspirations
研究一个简单的强化学习模型，其中行为变化由瞬时收益体验的强化或抑制效应驱动，而抱负水平会随时间调整。分析表明，抱负调整虽能提升长期表现，但也会因“概率匹配”效应导致偏离预期收益最大化。
This article considers a simple model of reinforcement learning. All behavior change derives from the reinforcing or deterring effect of instantaneous payoff experiences. Payoff experiences are reinforcing or deterring depending on whether the payoff exceeds an aspiration level or falls short of it. Over time, the aspiration level is adjusted toward the actually experienced payoffs. This article shows that aspiration level adjustments may improve the decision maker's long‐run performance by preventing him or her from feeling dissatisfied with even the best available strategies. However, such movements also lead to persistent deviations from expected payoff maximization by creating ‘probability matching’ effects.