On the simultaneity problem in the aid and growth debate
发现，只有在调整了人均GDP增长对外国援助的显著负向反向因果效应后，外国援助才对人均GDP增长有显著正向平均效应。工具变量估计显示，人均GDP增长每提高1个百分点，外国援助减少超过4%；而援助每增加1%，人均GDP增长提高约0.1个百分点。
SUMMARY This paper shows that foreign aid has a significant positive average effect on real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth if, and only if, the quantitatively large negative reverse causal effect of per capita GDP growth on foreign aid is adjusted for in the growth regression. Instrumental variables estimates show that a 1 percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth decreased foreign aid by over 4%. Adjusting for this quantitatively large, negative reverse causal effect of economic growth on foreign aid shows that a 1% increase in foreign aid increased real per capita GDP growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.