计量经济学中的标准化

Normalization in Econometrics

Econometric Reviews · 2007
被引 86 · 同刊同年前 9%
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究了参数标准化对最大似然估计和置信区间的影响,指出不当标准化会导致多峰分布和误导性统计推断,并提出了基于识别原则的标准化框架。

Abstract

The issue of normalization arises whenever two different values for a vector of unknown parameters imply the identical economic model. A normalization implies not just a rule for selecting which among equivalent points to call the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), but also governs the topography of the set of points that go into a small-sample confidence interval associated with that MLE. A poor normalization can lead to multimodal distributions, disjoint confidence intervals, and very misleading characterizations of the true statistical uncertainty. This paper introduces an identification principle as a framework upon which a normalization should be imposed, according to which the boundaries of the allowable parameter space should correspond to loci along which the model is locally unidentified. We illustrate these issues with examples taken from mixture models, structural vector autoregressions, and cointegration models.

识别原则参数空间边界局部不可识别混合模型