Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Indeterminacy in Postwar US Data
利用微观基础模型和似然推断方法，发现美国在沃尔克之前实行被动货币和被动财政政策导致经济不确定性，之后转为主动货币和被动财政政策，且政策冲击效应与传统模型预测相反。
Using a micro-founded model and a likelihood-based inference method, we show that while a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the U.S. before Paul Volcker's chairmanship at the Federal Reserve, an active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed after his appointment. Since both monetary and fiscal policies were passive pre-Volcker, equilibrium indeterminacy was a feature of the economy. Finally, pre-Volcker, the effects of unanticipated policy shifts were substantially different from those predicted by conventional monetary models: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output, while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output.