What is the Value of Agricultural Economics Research?
探讨如何用贝叶斯决策理论和经济剩余分析评估农业经济学研究的信息价值，通过三个案例展示该方法在单一决策中心或共识决策情境下的应用。
Abstract The output of agricultural economics research is information, much of it aimed at designing or improving institutions. Bayesian decision theory and economic surplus analysis have been suggested as possible approaches to evaluate that information. This article takes a critical look at the strengths and weaknesses of combining those approaches for empirical evaluation of agricultural economics research. It presents three case studies, utilizing prior and posterior probabilities elicited from key decision makers. Direct application of the probabilities to a simple set of states and actions is best suited to situations involving a single policy‐making center, or a consensus decision‐making process.