The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion
研究发现，快速剧烈的金融传染事件有三个共同特征：资本流入激增、事件出乎意料、存在高杠杆的共同债权人。这有助于识别哪些事件可能引发国际连锁反应。
Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by “the unholy trinity”: (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they come as a surprise; and (iii) they involve a leveraged common creditor. In contrast, when similar events have elicited little international reaction, they were widely anticipated and took place at a time when capital flows had already subsided.