好消息-坏消息效应:关于自身客观信息的不对称处理

The Good News-Bad News Effect: Asymmetric Processing of Objective Information about Yourself

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics · 2011
被引 674 · 同刊同年前 2%
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

实验发现,人们处理关于自身智力和美貌的客观信息时,对坏消息的更新行为更不可预测且回避新信息,而对好消息则更接近贝叶斯规则,且确认偏误主要由信息方向驱动。

Abstract

We study processing and acquisition of objective information regarding qualities that people care about, intelligence and beauty. Subjects receiving negative feedback did not respect the strength of these signals, were far less predictable in their updating behavior and exhibited an aversion to new information. In response to good news, inference conformed more closely to Bayes' Rule, both in accuracy and precision. Signal direction did not affect updating or acquisition in our neutral control. Unlike past work, our design varied direction and agreement with priors independently. The results indicate that confirmation bias is driven by direction; confirmation alone had no effect.

信息不对称处理贝叶斯更新确认偏误信号方向