The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?
使用时变系数结构向量自回归模型，分析美国产出和通胀的动态变化，发现技术冲击解释产出波动，实际需求冲击解释通胀持续性和波动，且冲击传导机制存在时变。
We examine the dynamics of U.S. output and inflation using a structural time‐varying coefficients vector autoregression. There are changes in the volatility of both variables and in the persistence of inflation, but variations are statistically insignificant. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility; real demand disturbances variations in the persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect important time variations in the transmission of technology shocks to output and demand shocks to inflation and significant changes in the variance of technology and of monetary policy shocks.