Financial Crises, Development, and Growth: A Long-term Perspective
基于多国长期数据，研究发现金融危机（如银行压力、汇率崩溃、通胀爆发或债务重组）通常与中期增长放缓相关，可能对相对经济发展产生持久影响。
Observed over long periods, the upward path of the output of most economies occasionally takes jagged steps down. More often than not, these events are associated with a variety of crises, including systemic banking stresses, exchange rate crashes, a burst of inflation, and a restructuring or default on sovereign debt. Using a large panel of countries over a long period, we document that crises are typically associated with lower medium-term growth. That may be a direct causal channel, a reverse channel, or the influence of some other factors on both growth and finance. But they tend to go together. Given that the forces for convergence of income across countries are estimated to be slow, going off track around a crisis will likely have long-lived consequences for relative economic development.