计量模型下的理性预期均衡

Rational Expectations Equilibrium with Econometric Models

Review of Economic Studies · 1985
被引 32
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

证明当经济主体使用计量模型(参数有限、形式预先指定)来预测私人信息、价格与环境状态的关系时,一般经济均衡的存在性。均衡要求市场出清,且每个主体在参数可行集中选择最小二乘拟合最优的参数向量。

Abstract

We prove the existence of general economic equilibrium under uncertainty when agents form econometric models of the relationship among their private information, prices, and the state of the environment. The functional form of each agent's model is specified in advance, with a finite number of parameters to be determined. Agents are then thought of as performing linear least squares estimation of the parameters. Equilibrium requires not only that markets clear, but also that each agent be using the vector of parameter values which, within a compact convex set of parameters, gives the least squares best fit to the data that is generated by the working of the economy when agents adhere to their models.

理性预期均衡计量经济模型参数估计市场出清