Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle, and Indeterminacy
发现，在基本新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型中，正向趋势通胀会缩小确定性区域，泰勒原理及其广义形式都不足以保证均衡局部确定性，这对利率规则的理论和实证分析有重要启示。
Positive trend inflation shrinks the determinacy region of a basic New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model when monetary policy is conducted by a contemporaneous interest rate rule. Neither the Taylor principle, which requires the inflation coefficient to be greater than one, nor the generalized Taylor principle, which requires that the nominal interest rate to be raised by more than the increase in inflation in the long run, is a sufficient condition for local determinacy of equilibrium. This finding holds for different types of Taylor rules, inertial policy rules, and price indexation schemes. Therefore, regardless of the theoretical setup, the monetary literature on interest rate rules cannot disregard average inflation in both theoretical and empirical analyses.