Ambiguous Business Cycles
研究了一个包含模糊性厌恶（奈特不确定性）的新凯恩斯经济周期模型，利用调查预测的离散度衡量信心，发现全要素生产率和信心冲击可解释约三分之二的经济周期波动，其中信心冲击占70%。
This paper studies a New Keynesian business cycle model with agents who are averse to ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Shocks to confidence about future TFP are modeled as changes in ambiguity. To assess the size of those shocks, our estimation uses not only data on standard macro variables, but also incorporates the dispersion of survey forecasts about growth as a measure of confidence. Our main result is that TFP and confidence shocks together can explain roughly two thirds of business cycle frequency movements in the major macro aggregates. Confidence shocks account for about 70 percent of this variation.