MULTIPLIER ESTIMATES: TO BIAS OR NOT TO BIAS?*
指出，在投入系数随机的情况下，乘数估计可能是有偏的。模拟中样本量过小导致误判为无偏，增大样本量后所有乘数估计均呈现显著但很小的正偏。
ABSTRACT It is well known that multiplier estimates within an interindustry context may be biased when the input coefficients are stochastic. Several conditions have been derived under which the estimates were shown to be biased, all with the same sign. In contrast to these analytical results, however, simulations using a stochastic transactions table unexpectedly reported the unbiasedness of multiplier estimates. This note argues that the sample sizes were too small. It is shown that for increased sample sizes the multiplier estimates are all positively and significantly biased, in line with the analytical results, but the biases are very small.