Modelling optimal grain-marketing decisions when prices are generated autoregressively
开发了一个模型，利用每周新观察到的价格更新未来价格预期，以最大化储存小麦销售收入的期望效用，并估计忽略价格自回归结构导致的营销损失相当于预期收入减少1.9%至14.5%。
A model is developed to find decision rules that maximise expected utility of income from selling stored wheat when future price expectations are updated weekly using newly observed prices. Expected utility is approximated in terms of six moments of the income distribution, and efficient procedures are developed to calculate moments. Marketing losses that arise when the autoregressive structure of wheat prices is ignored are estimated. Losses were found to be equivalent to reductions of 1.9–14.5% in expected income, depending on initial prices and risk aversion