The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment‐Specific Technology Shocks
利用新古典增长模型，区分中性技术冲击和投资专用技术冲击，发现两者在1982年前后对工时和产出的商业周期波动解释力不同，投资冲击是主要驱动因素。
The neoclassical growth model is used to identify the short-run effects of neutral technology shocks, which affect the production of all goods homogeneously, and investment-specific shocks, which affect only investment goods. The real equipment price, crucial for identifying the investment shocks, experiences an abrupt increase in its average rate of decline in 1982, so the analysis is based on a split sample. On the basis of the preferred specification, the two technology shocks account for 73 percent of hours' and 44 percent of output's business cycle variation before 1982, and 38 percent and 80 percent afterward. The shocks also account for more than 40 percent of hours' and 58 percent of output's forecast errors over a three- to eight-year horizon in both samples. The majority of these effects are driven by the investment shocks.