Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance
发现人们普遍存在指数增长偏差，即直觉上把指数函数当成线性函数，这能解释家庭金融中两个典型现象：低估利率和低估未来价值。偏差越大的家庭借更多、存更少、偏好短期，但更愿意接受并受益于财务建议。
ABSTRACT Exponential growth bias is the pervasive tendency to linearize exponential functions when assessing them intuitively. We show that exponential growth bias can explain two stylized facts in household finance: the tendency to underestimate an interest rate given other loan terms, and the tendency to underestimate a future value given other investment terms. Bias matters empirically: More‐biased households borrow more, save less, favor shorter maturities, and use and benefit more from financial advice, conditional on a rich set of household characteristics. There is little evidence that our measure of exponential growth bias merely proxies for broader financial sophistication.