Demographics, Stock Market Flows, and Stock Returns
研究人口年龄结构如何通过影响股市净流出（股息加回购减新发行）来解释股票收益，发现老年人口比例上升与资金流出正相关，中年人口比例上升则负相关，且人口结构能增强对股票溢价的预测能力。
Abstract This paper studies the link between population age structure, net outflows (dividends plus repurchases less net issues) from the stock market, and stock market returns in an overlapping generations framework. I find support for the traditional lifecycle models—the outflows from the stock market are positively correlated with the changes in the fraction of old people (65 and over) and negatively correlated with the changes in the fraction of middle-aged people (45 to 64). Changes in population age structure also add significant explanatory power to equity premium regressions. The population structure adds to the predictive power of regressions involving the investment/savings rate for the U.S. economy. Finally, international demographic changes have some power in explaining international capital flows.