Adaptation and Climate Change Impacts: A Structural Ricardian Analysis of Farm Types in Germany
利用德国农场普查数据，研究六种农场类型对气候的依赖以及气候变化对土地租金的影响，发现永久作物农场在高温地区更占优势，而饲料或混合农场在降水多的地区更常见，未来适度升温对多数农场有利但可能损害饲料农场。
Abstract Based on farm census data, we explore the climate‐dependent incidence of six farm types and the climate‐induced impacts on land rental prices in Germany. We apply a structural Ricardian approach by modeling the dominant farm type at 9,684 communities as depending on temperature, precipitation and other geographic variables. Rents per farm type are then modeled as depending on climate and other conditioning variables. These results allow the projection of the consequences of climate change as changes in our climate variables. Our results indicate that permanent‐crop farms are more likely to dominate in higher temperatures, whereas forage or mixed farms dominate in areas of higher precipitation levels. Land rental prices display a concave response to increases in annual precipitation, and appear to increase linearly with rising annual temperature. Moderate‐warming simulation results for future decades benefit most farm types but seem to penalise forage farms. Rental prices are projected to increase, ceteris paribus , for all farm types.