Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis and Market Volatility
用22个新兴市场的数据，发现九次金融危机中有八次发生在政治选举或过渡期，并证实政治选举与金融危机显著相关，期间市场波动加剧。
Abstract This paper examines the impact of political uncertainty on financial crises using a panel of 22 emerging markets. By examining political election cycles, we find that eight out of nine of the financial crises happened during the periods of political election and transition. Using a combination of probit and switching regression analysis, we find that there is a significant relationship between political election and financial crisis after controlling for differences in economic and financial conditions. We observe increased market volatility during political election and transition periods. Our results suggest that political uncertainty could be a major contributing factor to financial crisis. Thus, politics does matter in emerging markets. Since the odds of financial crisis tend to be much larger during the political election periods, institutional investors should take that into account when making emerging market investment during those time periods .