From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis
利用新编制的公共债务历史时间序列和外部债务数据，检验了外部债务激增先于银行危机、银行危机先于主权债务危机、以及公共借贷在主权违约前激增且隐藏国内债务超过外部债务这三个假设。
Newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both “world” aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. Second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt crises; we find they help predict them. Third, public borrowing surges ahead of external sovereign default, as governments have “hidden domestic debts” that exceed the better documented levels of external debt.