China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri-polar Global Currency System
检验了人民币是否已在亚洲主导汇率和货币政策，发现自2000年代中期以来，尤其是全球金融危机后，人民币已成为亚洲货币走势的关键驱动因素，支持了“中国主导假说”。
This study assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri‐polar by testing what we call China's ‘dominance hypothesis’, i.e. whether the renminbi already influences exchange rate and monetary policies strongly in Asia, a direct reference to the old ‘German dominance hypothesis’ which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a complementary event study, we find evidence that the renminbi has become a key driver of currency movements in Asia since the mid‐2000s, especially since the global financial crisis, in line with China's dominance hypothesis.