A Model-Based Evaluation of the Debate on the Size of the Tax Multiplier
用DSGE模型检验了SVAR和叙事法估算税收乘数差异的原因，发现差异源于识别方案不同或小样本不确定性，而非传导机制不同。
The SVAR and narrative approaches to estimating tax multipliers deliver significantly different results. The former yields multipliers of about 1 and the latter of about 3. The two approaches differ along two important dimensions: the identification scheme and the reduced-form transmission mechanism. This paper uses a DSGE-model to evaluate the hypothesis that the difference in multipliers is due to differences in transmission mechanisms. The main finding of the paper is that this hypothesis is rejected. Instead, the observed differences in estimated multipliers are due either to the models failing to identify the same tax shock, or to small-sample uncertainty.