The Economics of Wagering Markets
综述博彩市场作为研究不确定条件下市场价格与行为的自然实验，发现价格大致有效且由知情交易者驱动，但存在偏离效率的现象，并用信息多样性、异质主体和交易成本等模型解释。
Wagering markets provide a natural laboratory for testing models of market prices and behavior under uncertainty. The literature on wagering, albeit contentious, has established the following. First, prices set in these markets, to a first approximation, are efficient forecasts of outcomes. Second, price changes in these markets are driven by an informed class of bettors and improve prediction. Nevertheless, there are important departures from generic notions of market efficiency. Recent models focusing on diverse information, heterogeneous agents, and transaction costs help to explain these findings.