Dispersion of Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and the (Option Model) Implied Standard Deviations of Stock Returns
检验期权和股票价格隐含的收益标准差是否反映了分析师盈利预测的离散度，发现隐含标准差确实包含了这一信息，且超越了历史收益序列的信息。
ABSTRACT This study examines whether the information implied by simultaneous levels of option and stock prices (specifically, the implied standard deviation of returns) reflects other contemporaneously available information. The independent contemporaneous measure considered is the observed dispersion (across several financial analysts), at a point in time, in the forecasts of earnings per share for a given firm. The results indicate that implied standard deviations clearly reflect the contemporaneous dispersion in analysts' forecasts incrementally , i.e., beyond the information contained in the historical time series of returns.