A partial adjustment model with rational expectations applied to the goat sector in Greece
用单方程模型检验希腊山羊肉部门的理性预期假设，估计供需弹性，发现生产者应更关注羊奶而非羊肉，并验证了切尔诺贝利事故的影响。
In this paper an attempt is made to examine the rational expectations hypothesis for the goat-meat sector in Greece within the framework of a single equation method that describes the factors affecting demand and supply. The structural equations of the model are estimated by applying the Cochrane-Orcutt technique. The calculated elasticities suggest that Greek goat producers should pay more attention to milk rather than meat production. Statistical indications also confirm the effects of the Chernobyl accident upon the goat sector. Moreover, the forecasting ability of the model has been tested using simulation procedures, which indicate a small deviation between theoretical and observed values. Finally, some further implications concerning the goat sector are drawn from this analysis.