Propagation of Speculative Cycles: The Exchange Rate Channel
研究了全球风险厌恶情绪如何通过汇率渠道传导投机周期，尤其关注利差较大的发达和发展中经济体，指出资本流动驱动汇率波动，对货币政策与资本管理有启示。
The nominal and real exchange rates are key relative prices within and between economies. Their volatility and gyrations can have significant cumulative effects on the development pattern of financially integrated economies. The article documents the linkage between global risk aversion and the exchange rate of some developed and developing economy currencies characterised by large short-term interest rate differentials. If capital flows can drive exchange rates and transmit international speculative cycles inside the economic system, a careful design of monetary policy, exchange rate and capital management regimes is a fundamental ingredient of a successful development strategy.